Details to Be Verified - Progress and Expected Performance of Silver-Free Solar Cells Amid Soaring Silver Prices [SMM Analysis]

Against the backdrop of silver prices hitting record highs, the PV industry, as the largest industrial user of silver, is facing unprecedented cost pressures following the significant surge in silver prices in 2025. Taking the 183mm module produced by specialized module enterprises as an example, the share of silver paste for front and rear main and fine busbars in the module's full cost increased sharply from 9.9% in January 2025 to 22.1% in 2026.

I. Outlook for Silver Consumption Driven by Silver Reduction in PV in 2026
Amid the overheated precious metal market, R&D progress on "base metal substitution" has been passively accelerated among solar cell and module producers. Various technological routes are now flourishing in the market, with top-tier enterprises such as LONGi Green Energy, AIKO, and Jinko Solar releasing small-scale installation cases to capture market share. However, according to SMM, the dominant battery type in end-user installations remains TOPCON cells, which use pure silver paste as the raw material. Various copper substitution solutions and other alternatives are still in the small-scale testing phase, and data on performance and efficiency stability require at least five years of practical application validation. This is primarily because solar cell products come with a 20-year quality guarantee and warranty, and customers generally demand experimental data demonstrating stable operation for at least five years before proceeding with installation.

Based on SMM's communication with module customers, out of the expected 435.37 GW of new installations in 2026, installations related to silver-free technology are projected to be less than 50 GW. Large-scale application still awaits performance validation and reputation building. Therefore, despite recent frequent hot topics, SMM expects that the decline in solar cell production and the application of silver reduction in the PV sector will reduce silver consumption by approximately 800–1,000 mt in 2026, a decrease of about 17% compared to the over 6,000 mt of silver consumption demand in the PV sector in 2025. The limited market share of silver reduction and the products' yet-to-be-widely-accepted reputation are unlikely to lead to a significant decline in PV silver consumption in 2026–2027. However, if the performance of recent installation projects by top-tier enterprises is validated by 3–5 years of data, and issues such as increased contact resistance and power attenuation due to copper oxidation are resolved, the future PV market and silver supply-demand may face new transformations.
II. Brief Analysis of Mainstream Silver-Free Technologies
A variety of silver-free/silver-reduction technology routes are flourishing. Besides niche experimental technologies, the current common technical routes mainly fall into the following three directions:
(1) HJT Silver-Coated Copper Technology
According to related enterprises, silver-coated copper powder, paste technology, and solar cell production technology with 10%–30% silver content have long been developed and are ready for mass production. However, actual production is constrained by the market share of HJT cells, with representative enterprises including Huasheng New Energy.
(2) TOPCon Battery "High-Temperature Silver Seed Layer + Low-Temperature Silver-Coated Copper" Composite Solution
The high-temperature process environment of TOPCon batteries presents technical barriers to the substitution of base metals, making the "high-temperature silver seed layer + low-temperature silver-coated copper" the mainstream solution. Top-tier enterprises such as Jinko Solar have already achieved mass production validation of this solution in certain production lines. Initial application on the back side of the battery can reduce costs by 1-2 fen per watt. The industry expects small-scale mass production of TOPCon silver-copper paste in Q1 2026, while BC/HJT pure copper paste is anticipated to begin small-batch application in Q3 2026. Collaborative optimization between materials and equipment—such as finer grid lines, low-silver formulations, and improved patterning accuracy and yield—is key to implementation.
(3) Copper Electroplating Technology: Implementation of the Ultimate Silver-Free Solution
For the PV industry, copper electroplating technology represents a reinvestment largely independent of mainstream traditional production lines, with equipment costs up to three times higher than conventional processes. Due to high upfront investment costs, mass production has not yet been achieved. Representative enterprises such as AIKO have achieved 10 GW of silver-free mass production at their Zhuhai base, reducing cost by 0.03 yuan per watt, with a subsequent 10 GW planned for Jinan.

Soaring silver prices are accelerating technological transformation in the PV industry. Silver-free or low-silver approaches have long been a trend in technological development, and silver elimination technologies for BC, HJT, and next-generation high-efficiency batteries are expected to penetrate rapidly. However, it is important to note that the future PV industry may enter an era of multi-technology integration, where TOPCon, HJT, XBC, and even new battery technologies will coexist and complement each other, rather than simply replacing one another. Although silver-free technologies still face challenges in large-scale industrialization, practical applications by several companies indicate that technological breakthroughs are opening new development pathways for the industry. It is suggested to revise to: "Over the next 3–5 years, as technological maturity and market acceptance improve, silver-free technology is expected to play an increasingly important role in the PV industry, providing more economical and sustainable solutions for the global energy transition.